Can Cryptocurrencies Be an Alternative to Investing in Precious Metals?

Abstract

Globalization and the development of financial markets have increased the range of alternative instruments available to investors. The emergence of cryptocurrencies has been a catalyst for innovation in the financial sphere, but many investors were not prepared for such an evolving and dynamic market marked by strong ups and downs in prices. The article attempts to assess whether cryptocurrencies can provide an alternative to precious metals. The study used cryptocurrencies with the largest capitalization (bitcoin, ethereum and litecoin) and four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium) in the period of January 2026 and June 2022. Measures of profitability (average return) and risk (measured by standard deviation) were used. It was shown that the profitability of cryptocurrencies is significantly higher than precious metals, but only during periods of relative stability in the economy. During periods of severe economic turmoil, cryptocurrencies experience strong declines in returns and increases in risk, so they do not have the ability to maintain their value in times of uncertainty. The research shows that cryptocurrencies are failing as „digital gold” and are far from being a so-called safe haven. This was particularly evident in the first half of 2022, as global macroeconomic uncertainty, galloping inflation, tighter monetary policy, the exodus of large investors and the economic downturn caused investors to flee from high-risk instruments, which in the long run could further exacerbate the recession in the cryptocurrency market and trigger a collapse in the market. The second part of the study examined whether precious metals and cryptocurrencies are instruments that allow diversification of portfolio risk (risk minimization). The optimization problem of determining the size of the shares of individual currencies (stocks, precious metals and cryptocurrencies) in the portfolio was solved using the Markowitz decision model (calculations were made using the Solver function). In the case of the Polish capital market, it was also shown that cryptocurrencies (despite their low correlation with precious metals) do not affect the risk reduction of the investment portfolio, unlike precious metals (and especially gold). Precious metals are considered crisis metals because they have historically been seen as a hedge against stagflation and a safe haven for capital, especially during periods of geopolitical turmoil and economic crises. They are therefore a natural choice for investors who value slow and steady growth.