The Identification of Seasonality in the Housing Market Using the X13-ARIMA-SEATS Model

Abstract

Aim: In the conducted research, profiles of seasonality in the housing market were determined, which
provided an opportunity to answer two fundamental questions: what is the nature of harmonic
variation in the seasonality and periodicity of the studied components of the construction process?
what parameters of the ARIMA model optimally describe the construction market?
Methodology: In the conducted research, using the X13-ARIMA-SEATS model, seasonal decomposition
was carried out in the various stages of the housing construction process.
Results: The research process conducted to identify seasonal fluctuations in the housing construction
market showed that harmonic fluctuation profiles can be identified on an annual basis. An analysis of
seasonal fluctuations was carried out for each of the three stages of the housing construction process,
while also checking how these profiles function for Poland in general, and for individual investors, and
for those building apartments for sale or to rent. The study showed that the market for real estate
development activity differs in its seasonal characteristics from that of individual investors.
Implications and recommendations: The conclusions obtained from the research can provide support
in the decision-making process, both from a macro and microeconomic perspective. Parameterisation
of the occurring fluctuations, and taking them into account in the process of developing a forecast can
provide decision-making rationale in the implementation of macroprudential and financial stability
policies
Originality/Value: A novelty is in the demonstration that the residential real estate market in Poland
shows different seasonal parameters, divided into the market of individual investors and investors who
build apartments for sale or rent.