Modelling the impact of socio-economic factors on the diffusion of wind energy in selected EU countries
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2026.1.06Keywords:
renewable energy sources, wind energy, logistic model, ECMAbstract
Aim: The aim of the article was to assess the diffusion of wind energy and to identify the socio-economic factors determining the rate of this diffusion.
Methodology: A logistic model was used to analyse the diffusion of wind energy, while the econometric Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to study the impact of socio-economic factors on the rate of diffusion.
Results: In most of the surveyed countries the most important variable influencing the speed of diffusion of wind technology innovations were energy prices, followed by electricity consumption per capita, whereas the least important variable was number of researchers in R&D. The number of patents and R&D expenditure were relatively more often a statistically significant determinant of the diffusion of innovation among the old EU member states than among the member states from Central and Eastern Europe.
Implications and recommendations: The innovation of the wind energy sector in some countries is insufficient and requires appropriate stimulation. This can be achieved by, among others, increasing investment outlays on research and development in the renewable energy sector, and developing offshore energy, which is much more effective than onshore wind farms.
Originality/value: The article presents an original comparative analysis of the diffusion of wind energy in EU countries, and using ECM models, the factors determining the dynamics of this diffusion were identified. The results bring added value in terms of economic and political research in the wind energy sector.
Downloads
References
Almeida, D. V., Kolinjivadi, V., Ferrando, T., Roy, B., Herrera, H., Gonçalves, M. V., & Van Hecken, G. (2023).The “Greening” of Empire: The European Green Deal as the EU first agenda. Political Geography, 105, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2023.102925
Bass, F. M. (1969). A new product growth for model consumer durables. Management Science, 15(5), 215-227. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.5.215
Biresselioglu, M. E., Kilinc, D., Onater-Isberk, E., & Yelkenci, T. (2016). Estimating the political, economic and environmental factors’ impact on the installed wind capacity development: A system GMM approach. Renewable Energy, 96, 636-644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.05.034
Carley, S. (2009). State renewable energy electricity policies: An empirical evaluation of effectiveness. Energy Policy, 37(8), 3071-3081. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.03.062
Del Río, P., & Tarancόn, M. Á. (2012). Analysing the determinants of on-shore wind capacity additions in the EU: An econometric study. Applied Energy, 95, 12-25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.01.043
Dooley, K., & Kartha, S. (2018). Land-based negative emissions: Risks for climate mitigation and impacts on sustainable development. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 18, 79-98. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-017-9382-9
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Eurostat database (2024). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
Grubb, M. et al. (2021). The New Economics of Innovation and Transition: Evaluating Opportunities and Risks. Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition, University of Exeter, the Report, https://eeist.co.uk/download/557/
Keeley, A. R., & Ikeda, Y., (2017). Determinants of foreign direct investment in wind energy in developing countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 161, 1451-1458. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.05.106
Keeley, A. R., & Matsumoto, K. (2018). Investors’ perspective on determinants of foreign direct investment in wind and solar energy in developing economies e review and expert opinions. Journal of Cleaner Production, 179, 132-142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.12.154
Lehtovaara, M., Karvonen, M., Kapoor, R., Kässi, T. S., & Pyrhӧnen, J. (2014). Major factors contributing to wind power diffusion. Foresight, 16(3), 250-269. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-03-2013-0012
Lei, Y. C., & Zhang, S. Y. (2004). Features and Partial Derivatives of Bertalanffy – Richards Growth Model in Forestry. Nonlinear Analysis: Modelling and Control, 9(1), 65-73. https://doi.org/10.15388/NA.2004.9.1.15171
Markard, J., Geels, F.W., & Raven, R. (2020). Challenges in the acceleration of sustainability transitions. Environmental Research Letters, 15(8), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9468
Marques, A., Fuinhas, J., & Pires, J. (2010). Motivations driving renewable energy in European countries: A panel data approach. Energy Policy, 38(11), 6877-6885. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.07.003
Our World in Data (2024). https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy
Şener, Ş. E. C., Anctil, A., & Sharp, J. L. (2023). Economic and environmental factors of wind energy deployment in the United States. Renewable Energy Focus, 45, 150-168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ref.2023.03.004
Şener, Ş. E. C., Sharp, J. L., & Anctil, A. (2018). Factors impacting diverging paths of renewable energy: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 81(2), 2335-2342. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.06.042
She, Z. Y., Cao, R., Xie, B. C., Ma, J. J., & Lan, S. (2019). An analysis of the wind power development factors by Generalized Bass Model: A case study of China’s eight bases. Journal of Cleaner Production, 231(10), 1503-1514. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.255
Sisodia, G. S., & Soares, I. (2015). Panel data analysis for renewable energy investment determinants in Europe. Applied Economics Letters, 22(5), 397-401. https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2014.946176
Sisodia, G. S., Soares, I., & Ferreira, P. (2016). The effect of sample size on European Union’s renewable energy investment drivers. Applied Economics, 48(53), 5129-5137. https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1173176
Steffen, B., Matsuo, T., Steinemann, D., & Schmidt, T. S. (2018). Opening new markets for clean energy: The role of project developers in the global diffusion of renewable energy technologies. Business and Politics, 20(4), 553-587. https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/bap.2018.17
Strantzali, E., & Aravossis, K. (2016). Decision making in renewable energy investments: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 55, 885-898. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.11.021
Wei, Z., & Huang, L. (2022). Invading the dynamics of economic growth and CO2 emission: Panel data error correction model (ECM) approach. Environmental Science & Pollution Research, 29(48). https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-34291-w
Ydersbond, I. M., & Korsnes, M. S. (2016). What drives investment in wind energy? A comparative study of China and the European Union. Energy Research & Social Science, 12(2), 50-61. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2015.11.003
Yin, A., & Powers, N. (2010). Do state renewable portfolio standards promote in-state renewable generation? Energy Policy, 38(2), 1140-1149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.10.067
Zwarteveen, J. W., Figueira, C., Zawwar, I., & Angus, A. (2021). Barriers and drivers of the global imbalance of wind energy diffusion: A meta-analysis from a wind power Original Equipment Manufacturer perspective. Journal of Cleaner Production, 290, 125636. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125636
Zwarteveen, J. W, Zawwar, I. & Angus, A. (2022). Market entry for wind energy: Strategic approaches for the original equipment manufacturer. Business Strategy & Development, 5(3), 165-186. https://doi.org/10.1002/bsd2.188
Downloads
Published
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Marcin Salamaga

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Accepted 2025-10-12
Published 2026-04-29





