Changes in the risk of severe material and social deprivation in Poland in the crisis period after 2019
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2026.1.07Keywords:
severe material and social deprivation, Poland, binomial logit model, marginal means, probabilitiesAbstract
Aim: The aim of the paper was to assess the pure influence of the most fundamental socio-economic and socio-demographic factors on severe material and social deprivation (SMSD) in Poland, identify population groups at risk of SMSD and compare the results between 2019 and 2022.
Methodology: The research was based on binomial logit models, associated marginal means and their estimation and contrast analysis.
Results: The paper revealed that, compared to 2019, the risk groups for SMSD in Poland did not change in 2022. However, the threat of SMSD significantly increased for the most vulnerable groups (unemployed, disabled, low-educated persons, persons with poor health, unmarried persons). If a person belonged to multiple risk groups according to various relevant factors, a negative synergistic effect was observed in both years, with this effect being much greater in 2022.
Implications and recommendations: The results suggest that the recent crises (health, energy, inflation) in the early 2020s have caused a significant increase in the probability of SMSD for risk groups in the Polish population. Further research will be needed to confirm the causality between the increased risk of SMSD and the crises.
Originality/value: The use of marginal means analysis and contrast analysis in the field of poverty and social exclusion is original. Through these sophisticated statistical procedures, the paper provides an in-depth analysis of the differences in the probability of SMSD between different categories of relevant factors during the years considered.
Downloads
References
Agresti, A. (2015). Foundations of linear and generalized linear models. John Wiley & Sons.
Allison, P. D. (2012). Logistic regression using SAS: Theory and application. 2nd ed. SAS Institute Inc.
Bedük, S. (2018). Understanding material deprivation for 25 EU countries: Risk and level perspectives, and distinctiveness of zeros. European Sociological Review, 34(2), 121-137. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcx089
Blasco, J. (2023). Measuring deep poverty in developed countries. A cumulative indicator of income and material deprivation. Sciences Po LIEPP Working Paper, 155, 2023-12-14.
Chen, K. M., Leu, C. H., & Wang, T. M. (2019). Measurement and determinants of multidimensional poverty: Evidence from Taiwan. Social Indicators Research, 145, 459-478. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-019-02118-8
Ciacci, A., & Traversa, S. (2021). A non-compensatory time analysis of material deprivation in the EU. Revista de Estudios Andaluces, 42, 118-137. https://doi.org/10.12795/rea.2021.i42.06
Ćwiek, M., Maj-Waśniowska, K., & Stabryła-Chudzio, K. (2020). Spatial Differentiation of Poverty in Polish Voivodships. Central European Management Journal, 28, 2-25. https://doi.org/10.7206/cemj.2658-0845.25
Dean, A., Voss, D., & Draguljić, D. (2017). Design and Analysis of Experiments. Springer.
Dudek, H. (2019). Country-level drivers of severe material deprivation rates in the EU. Ekonomický časopis, 67(01), 33-51.
Dudek, H., & Szczesny, W. (2021). Multidimensional material deprivation in Poland: A focus on changes in 2015–2017. Quality & Quantity, 55(2), 741-763. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-020-01024-3
Dutta, S. (2021). Multidimensional deprivation among children in India and Bangladesh. Child Indicators Research, 14(3), 917-955. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12187-020-09787-9
European Commission. (2022). Methodological guidelines and description of EU-SILC target variables. 2022 operation (Version 4). https://circabc.europa.eu/d/a/workspace/SpacesStore/94141a49-a4a7-48bc-89f7-df858c27d016/Methodological%20guidelines%202022%20operation%20v4.pdf
Eurostat. (2023a). Key Figures on European Living Conditions – 2023 Edition. Publications Office of the EU.
Eurostat. (2023b). Sustainable development in the European Union – Monitoring report on progress towards the SDGs in an EU context – 2023 Edition. Publications Office of the EU.
Fabrizi, E., & Mussida, C. (2020). Assessing poverty persistence in households with children. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 18(4), 551-569. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-020-09455-6
Fabrizi, E., Mussida, C., & Parisi, M. L. (2023). Comparing material and social deprivation indicators: Identification of deprived populations. Social Indicators Research, 165(3), 999-1020. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-022-03058-6
González, L., Estarlich, M., Murcia, M., Larrañaga, I., Barreto, F. B., Santa-Marina, L., Arranz, E., Cirugeda, L., Simó, S., & Rebagliato, M. (2021). Risk of child poverty and social exclusion in two Spanish regions: Social and family determinants. Gaceta Sanitaria, 35, 216-223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gaceta.2019.11.002
Grzybowska, U., Dudek, H., & Wojewódzka-Wiewiórska, A. (2023). Analysis of material deprivation in Poland: A machine learning approach. Procedia Computer Science, 225, 3113-3122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2023.10.305
Guio, A. C., Marlier, É., & Nolan, B. (Eds.). (2021). Improving the understanding of poverty and social exclusion in Europe. Publications Office of the EU.
Kim, K., & Timm, N. (2006). Univariate and multivariate general linear models: Theory and applications with SAS. CRC Press.
Lafortune, G., Fuller, L., Kloke-Lesch, A., Koundouri, P., & Riccaboni, A. (2024). European Elections, Europe’s Future and the Sustainable Development Goals. Europe Sustainable Development Report 2023/24. SDSN and SDSN Europe. SDSN, Dublin University Press. https://doi.org/10.25546/104407
Lee, J., & Cagle, J. G. (2018). Social exclusion factors influencing life satisfaction among older adults. Journal of Poverty and Social Justice, 26(1), 35-50. https://doi.org/10.1332/175982717X15127351091521
Littell, R. C., Stroup, W. W., & Freund, R. J. (2010). SAS for Linear Models (4th ed.) SAS Institute Inc.
Łuczak, A., & Kalinowski, S. (2020). Assessing the level of the material deprivation of European Union countries. Plos one, 15(9), e0238376. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238376
Mack, J., & Lansley, S. (1985). Poor Britain. Allen and Urwin.
Menyhert, B. (2023). Inflation and its diverse social consequences across the euro area. Quarterly Report on the Euro Area QREA, 22, 7-16.
Munoz Boudet, A. M., Bhatt, A., Azcona, G., Yoo, J., & Beegle, K. (2021). A global view of poverty, gender, and household composition. Policy Research Working Paper, 9553.
Mysíková, M. (2021). Measuring Income Poverty in the EU: Visegrád Countries and European Empirical Data. Institute of Sociology of the Czech Academy of Sciences.
Sánchez-Sellero, M. C., & Garcia-Carro, B. (2020). Which Groups Have a Greater Risk of Poverty in Spain? Revija za Socijalnu Politiku, 27(1), 36-36. https://doi.org/10.3935/rsp.v27i1.1572
SAS Institute Inc. (1997). SAS Technical Report R-103, Least-squares means in the fixed-effects general models.
SAS Institute Inc. (2020). SAS/STAT® 15.2 User’s Guide. The Logistic Procedure.
Schad, D. J., Vasishth, S., Hohenstein, S., & Kliegl, R. (2020). How to capitalize on a priori contrasts in linear (mixed) models: A tutorial. Journal of Memory and Language, 110, 104038. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jml.2019.104038
Searle, S. R., & Gruber, M. H. J. (2017). Linear Models (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Sedefoğlu, G., & Dudek, H. (2024). Material and Social Deprivation in the European Union: Country-level analysis. Economics & Sociology, 17(1), 23-35. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-789X.2024/17-1/2
Suzuki, M., Taniguchi, T., Furihata, R., Yoshita, K., Arai, Y., Yoshiike, N., & Uchiyama, M. (2019). Seasonal changes in sleep duration and sleep problems: A prospective study in Japanese community residents. PLoS One, 14(4), e0215345. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0215345
Tøge, A. G., & Bell, R. (2016). Material deprivation and health: A longitudinal study. BMC Public Health, 16, 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-016-3327-z
Verbunt, P., & Guio, A. C. (2019). Explaining differences within and between countries in the risk of income poverty and severe material deprivation: Comparing single and multilevel analyses. Social Indicators Research, 144, 827-868. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-018-2021-1
Vidal, G., & Villani, D. (2022). Whom does inflation hurt most? European Commission Joint Research Centre, JRC129558.
Wang, B., Wu, P., Kwan, B., Tu, M. X., & Feng, Ch. (2018). Simpson’s paradox: Examples. Shanghai Archives of Psychiatry, 30(2), 139. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.11919/j.issn.1002-0829.218026
Wooldridge, J. M. (2016). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (6rd ed.). South-Western-Cengage learning.
Downloads
Published
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Erik Šoltés, Michał Bernard Pietrzak, Silvia Komara, Martina Košíková
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Accepted 2025-05-22
Published 2026-04-29
